《奇点已近（Singularity is Near）》读书笔记
《奇点已近（Singularity is Near）》读书笔记
最近在读一本2005年出版的书《奇点已近（Singularity is Near）》，是一本预测未来的书。
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《奇点已近（Singularity is Near）》读书笔记：什么是奇点
那么，什么是奇点呢？ 是指未来的一个时期，技术变革的步伐将如此之快，其影响如此之深，人类的生活将发生不可逆转的改变。
奇点将使我们能够超越我们生物体和大脑的这些限制。 我们将获得主宰命运的力量。 我们的死亡将掌握在我们自己的手中。 我们将能够活得如我们所愿。 我们将充分理解人类的思维，并将极大地扩展和扩大其影响范围。 到本世纪末，我们智力的非生物部分将比独立的人类智力强大数万亿倍。
What, then, is the Singularity? It’s a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so rapid, its impact so deep, that human life will be irreversibly transformed.
The Singularity will allow us to transcend these limitations of our biological bodies and brains. We will gain power over our fates. Our mortality will be in our own hands. We will be able to live as long as we want. We will fully understand human thinking and will vastly extend and expand its reach. By the end of this century, the nonbiological portion of our intelligence will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than unaided human intelligence.
奇点将使我们能够超越我们生物体和大脑的这些限制。 我们将获得主宰命运的力量。 我们的死亡将掌握在我们自己的手中。 我们将能够活得如我们所愿。 我们将充分理解人类的思维，并将极大地扩展和扩大其影响范围。 到本世纪末，我们智力的非生物部分将比独立的人类智力强大数万亿倍。
What, then, is the Singularity? It’s a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so rapid, its impact so deep, that human life will be irreversibly transformed.
The Singularity will allow us to transcend these limitations of our biological bodies and brains. We will gain power over our fates. Our mortality will be in our own hands. We will be able to live as long as we want. We will fully understand human thinking and will vastly extend and expand its reach. By the end of this century, the nonbiological portion of our intelligence will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than unaided human intelligence.
《奇点已近（Singularity is Near）》:线性 vs. 指数级
The first idea is that human progress is exponential (that is, it expands by repeatedly multiplying by a constant) rather than linear (that is, expanding by repeatedly adding a constant).
第一个想法是，人类的进步是指数级的（即通过重复乘以一个常数来扩展）而不是线性的（即通过重复地添加一个常数来扩展）。
But because we’re doubling the rate of progress every decade，we’ll see the equivalent of a century of progress — at today’s rate — in only twenty-five calendar years.
但由于我们每十年将进步速度翻一番，按照今天的速度，我们将在短短二十五年内看到相当于一个世纪的进步。
第一个想法是，人类的进步是指数级的（即通过重复乘以一个常数来扩展）而不是线性的（即通过重复地添加一个常数来扩展）。
But because we’re doubling the rate of progress every decade，we’ll see the equivalent of a century of progress — at today’s rate — in only twenty-five calendar years.
但由于我们每十年将进步速度翻一番，按照今天的速度，我们将在短短二十五年内看到相当于一个世纪的进步。