13，信息战。尽管西方分析家有强烈的猜测，普京并没有利用胜利日庆祝活动通过呼吁正式宣战、全国动员或立即吞并被占领的乌克兰领土来升级战争。
14，在这些备受争议的投机行动中，只有最后一个，即直接吞并被占领的乌克兰领土的意图可能很快成为可能。俄罗斯正在加强对被占领土的控制，并可能将其纳入俄罗斯。
15，信息优势。西方改进了关于如何支持乌克兰击败俄罗斯的信息，并致力于乌克兰的战争目标。这一信息向支持者发出了一个信号，即支持俄罗斯不符合他们的最佳利益。
16，人道主义影响。乌克兰难民总数超过 808 万人，其中 628 万人在与乌克兰接壤的国家，另外 180多万人在整个欧洲，还有 75 万人在乌克兰境内流离失所（东部有 140多万人，乌克兰南部有 22.8 万人）。
17，5 月 6 日至 7 日，联合国和国际红十字会完成了从亚速斯塔尔地区撤离平民的工作。疏散并非没有事故。俄罗斯军队袭击了撤离车队，并瞄准了协助救援的乌克兰士兵。
18，总体评估。俄罗斯军队正面临严重的战略困境，要么在哈尔科夫战区承担风险并加强在顿巴斯的努力，但可能收效甚微，要么对哈尔科夫进行重大反击以保护其作战基地。
19，任何一种选择都会使顿巴斯的进攻行动全面停止，但失去他们的行动基地将是灾难性的。俄罗斯似乎已经将部队从伊兹姆轴心转移到哈尔科夫，更多的部队很可能会被转移到北方。
20，未来几天，俄罗斯可能会发起反击，以稳定哈尔科夫战区并保护其进入别尔哥罗德的作战基地。如果不是这样，哈尔科夫战区很可能会崩溃，俄罗斯的所有作战势头和最近在顿巴斯的成功都可能随之崩溃。
21，这些地图是我根据来自各种 OSINT 来源的乌克兰战区最可靠的活动信息创建的。一旦发现错误，将立即纠正。
22，有关乌克兰部队的信息是一般性的，基于乌克兰总参谋部的声明和社交媒体帖子、乌克兰政府官方新闻稿和当地新闻。它不描述当前的单位移动。结尾。
13/ Info War. Despite intense conjecture of Western analysts, Putin did not use the Victory Day celebrations to escalate the war through calls for a formal declaration of war, national mobilization, or immediate annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory.
14/ Of these much-debated speculative moves only the last, an intent to directly annex occupied Ukrainian territory, may become a possibility soon. Russia is increasing control of occupied territory and may incorporate these into Russia.
15/ Information Advantage. The West has improved its messaging on how it is supporting Ukraine to defeat Russia, & committed to Ukraine’s war aims. This messaging is a signal to would be supporters that it is not in their best interest to back Russia.
16/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees total 8.08+ million with 6.28+ million in countries bordering Ukraine, another 1.8+ throughout Europe, and 7.5+ million internally displaced people throughout Ukraine (1.4+ million in eastern & 228K in southern Ukraine).
17/ From 06-07 May the UN & International Red Cross completed the evacuation of civilians from the Azovstal area. The evacuation was not without incident. Russian forces attacked evacuation convoys and targeted Ukrainian Soldiers aiding the effort.
18/ Overall Assessment. Russian forces are facing a serious strategic dilemma, assume risk in the Kharkiv OD & reinforce efforts in the Donbas for potentially little immediate gain, or conduct a major counterattack toward Kharkiv to protect its operational base.
19/ Either option brings offensive operations in the Donbas to a general halt but losing their operational base would be catastrophic. Russia appears to already be shifting forces away from the Izium Axis toward Kharkiv, more forces will more than likely be diverted north.
20/ The coming days will likely see a Russian counterattack to stabilize the Kharkiv OD and protect access to it operational base in Belgorod. If not, the Kharkiv OD will likely collapse, and with it likely all of Russia’s operational momentum and recent success in the Donbas.
21/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of OSINT sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
22/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements. END