据了解,BA4、BA.5 比Omicron的BA.2传播更快,而且含有一段Delta的基因片段L452R,这段基因片段臭名昭著,会使病毒容易感染,更容易引起重症,另外还有F486V这段基因,帮助逃脱抗体。见图1。#新冠肺炎#
南非是基因排序查病毒最给力的国家,他们那儿最先查出来并不一定他们就是源头。像加拿大,明确表示,人太多,测不过来,一般来说,想测自己想办法。
不过,可能大家免疫力都提升了,BA.4、BA.5已经传播到欧洲、北美了,还没听说在现实环境中容易引起重症,引起恐慌的。可能是,病毒真非昔比了,大家的免疫力也不一般了。[doge]
转几个推特:
南非新确诊 Covid 病例的 BA.4 和 BA.5 Omicron 子变种驱动的增加很好地说明了地方性平衡的情况:每 6 个月出现一次显著的波,具有显著的死亡率和发病率。图2。
这里以累积数量显示,作为人口的百分比。 根据这些估计,现在的真实感染人数超过了南非的人口规模。 如此美妙的黏膜免疫。图3。
地球上没有哪个国家的公民以前感染过 COVID 的比例高于南非。 在豪登省的情况下显著上升。 现在住院人数正在上升。 在 3 周内上涨 24%,而今天的数字滞后,到本周末会高得多。图4、5。
The BA.4 & BA.5 Omicron subvariant-driven increase of new confirmed Covid cases in South Africa gives a good idea of what the endemic equilibrium will look like: a significant wave every 6 months with significant mortality & morbidity.
Here shown in terms of cumulative numbers, as a % of the population. According to these estimates, the true number of infections now exceeds the South African population size. So much for that fantastic mucosal immunity.
No country on Earth has a higher percentage of it's citizens previously infected with COVID than South Africa. In Gauteng cases up significantly. Hospitalizations now rising. Up 24% in 3 weeks and the number today is lagged, will be much higher by the end of the week.